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To economic historians like Joel Mokyr,there's nothing inevitable about the incredible wealth and health of the modernworld. But for a spark in a little corner of Europe that ignited the IndustrialRevolution — which spread incredible advances in technology and livingstandards first across the north Atlantic coast in the 1700 and 1800s andgradually around the world — we could all be living the nasty, brutish lives ofour ancestors centuries before.

對于像喬爾?莫凱爾這樣的經(jīng)濟歷史學(xué)家來說，現(xiàn)代世界不可思議的財富和發(fā)展并不是注定的。但是，當歐洲某個角落的火花點燃了工業(yè)革命——這場工業(yè)革命在技術(shù)和生活水平上導(dǎo)致了驚人的進步，首先是在1700和1800年代，在北大西洋沿岸，然后逐漸在全世界傳播——在這之前的幾個世紀，我們可能都和我們祖先一樣過著骯臟、野蠻的生活。

Mokyr, who teaches at NorthwesternUniversity, dives into the mystery of how the world went from being poor tobeing so rich in just a few centuries in a forthcoming book, “A Culture ofGrowth: The Origins of the Modern Economy.”

莫凱爾在西北大學(xué)任教，他在即將出版的一本書《文化的進步：現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟的起源》中深入探討了這個世界如何在幾個世紀內(nèi)從貧窮走向富裕的奧秘。

Mokyr argues that there's a reason theIndustrial Revolution occurred in Europe and not, for example, in China, whichhad in previous centuries shown signs of more scientific advancement: Europedeveloped a unique culture of competitive scientific and intellectualadvancement that was unprecedented and not at all predestined.

莫凱爾認為，工業(yè)革命發(fā)生在歐洲，而不是中國，這是有原因的。中國，在過去的歲月里，給我們的印象是科學(xué)技術(shù)更加發(fā)達，而歐洲，則出現(xiàn)了獨特的競爭性科學(xué)、進步的文明，這是史無前列的，并不是命中注定的。

Why the Industrial Revolution occurred?

工業(yè)革命為什么會發(fā)生呢？

That came out of Western Europe and itsoffshoot in North America after 1800. If it hadn’t been for that, you and Iwould be looking at a life expectancy of maybe 40, and I probably I wouldn’t besipping cappuccino from a fancy machine and talking to you on my smartphone.Look at what we have achieved in every dimension. Technology hasn’t justincreased our income, it’s changed every aspect of daily life.

這種變化是1800年后從西歐及北美慢慢演變出來的。如果不是那樣的話，我和你的預(yù)期壽命大概只有40歲，我可能不會喝高檔咖啡機里的卡布奇諾，沒法用智能手機跟你說話。看看我們在各個方面都取得了什么成就。科技不僅增加了我們的收入，而且改變了我們?nèi)粘Ｉ畹姆椒矫婷妗?br/>
The question is, was all this inevitable?My answer is, absolutely no.

問題是，這一切是注定的嗎？我的答案是，絕對不是。

So why did this dramatic change occur? Andwhy did it start in Europe, rather than in China?

那么，為什么會發(fā)生這種戲劇性的變化呢？為什么它是從歐洲而不是中國開始的？

China has a glorious past in its scientificachievements. And yet they were never able to turn it into economic growth asthe West did. If you look at Europe and China in the 19th century, Europe isadvancing at breathtaking speed. It’s building a rail network, steamships,factories. By the early 20th century, China looked like it was going to becompletely occupied by imperialist powers. Clearly the technological andeconomic development of East and West diverged from 1850 on. The question is“Why?”

中國的科學(xué)成就有著輝煌的歷史。然而，他們卻無法像西方那樣將其轉(zhuǎn)化為經(jīng)濟增長。如果你看看19世紀的歐洲和中國，歐洲正以驚人的速度前進，它正在建設(shè)鐵路網(wǎng)，輪船，工廠。到20世紀初，中國卻幾乎完全被帝國主義列強占領(lǐng)了。顯然，東西方的技術(shù)和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展從1850年開始出現(xiàn)了變化。問題是這個變化的原因是什么呢?

I think that is the major difference. Itisn’t just that China doesn’t have an Industrial Revolution, it doesn’t have aGalileo or a Newton or a Descartes, people who announced that everything peopledid before them was wrong. That’s hard to do in any society, but it was easierto do in Europe than China. The reason precisely is because Europe wasfragmented, and so when somebody says something very novel and radical, if thegovernment decides they are a heretic and threatens to prosecute them, theypack their suitcase and go across the border.

我認為這是主要的區(qū)別。不僅僅是工業(yè)革命沒有在中國發(fā)生的原因，而且也是為什么中國沒有伽利略、牛頓或笛卡爾的原因，這些人宣稱人們在他們之前所做的一切都是錯誤的。這在任何社會都很難做到，但在歐洲比在中國更容易做到。原因正是因為歐洲的四分五裂，所以當有人說一些非常新穎和激進的話時，如果當權(quán)者認為他們是異端，并威脅要起訴他們，他們就打包行李，去到另外的國家。

Europe creates a competitive world thatencourages intellectual innovation. There’s the Reformation, which says thereligion you had until now is wrong. The same happens in
astronomy, chemistry,medicine, mathematics and philosophy. Eventually, it filters down to how wemake textiles and shoes, and how we grow corn.

歐洲創(chuàng)造了一個鼓勵科學(xué)創(chuàng)新的競爭世界。宗教改革認為之前的宗教信仰是錯誤的，天文學(xué)、化學(xué)、醫(yī)學(xué)、數(shù)學(xué)和哲學(xué)也是如此。最終，它延伸到我們?nèi)绾沃圃旒徔椘泛托?，以及我們?nèi)绾畏N植玉米。

I want to make clear, very few serioushistorians think China failed. China wanted stability and security, and theyachieved that for a long time. The Europeans don’t want stability. They wantprogress. Of course, China’s stability gets disrupted by Europeans showing upwith more powerful ships and guns. Eventually, China crumbles under theonslaught of European modernity. It’s quite a tragic story.

我想說清楚，很少有嚴肅的歷史學(xué)家認為中國失敗了。中國需要穩(wěn)定和安全，他們實現(xiàn)這一目標的時間很長。歐洲人不希望穩(wěn)定，他們想要進步。當然，中國的穩(wěn)定會因為歐洲人帶著更強大的船只和槍支而受到破壞。最終，中國在歐洲現(xiàn)代性的沖擊下崩潰。這是一個很悲慘的故事。

Between Columbus’s voyage to America in1492 and the death of Isaac Newton in 1727, the agenda of research in Europechanges. For much of human history, people studied science and naturalphenomena, not to make us materially better off, but just to satisfy curiosity.The ancient Greeks made fantastic scientific progress, but there are fewinstances in which they use it for anything. In fact, Aristotle says scienceshouldn’t be used, because work is something for the lower classes. Learnedpeople didn’t work, and working people didn’t learn.

從1492年哥倫布發(fā)現(xiàn)美洲之旅到1727年牛頓的去世，歐洲的研究不斷的發(fā)生變化。在人類歷史的大部分時間里，人們研究科學(xué)和自然現(xiàn)象，不是為了讓我們物質(zhì)上更富裕，而是為了滿足好奇心。古希臘人取得了驚人的科學(xué)進步，但很少有人用它來做任何事情。事實上，亞里士多德說科學(xué)不應(yīng)該被使用，因為工作是由底層階級去做的。有學(xué)問的人不工作，有工作的人不學(xué)習(xí)。

Before the Industrial Revolution, learnedpeople in Europe changed the agenda. They say, “Look, we should study nature,but we should do so to improve our material welfare.” To people today, thissounds totally obvious. But it wasn’t in the year 1600. By the 18th century,this has become the consensus. That's what I call the Industrial Enlightenment.

在工業(yè)革命之前，歐洲的科學(xué)家改變了這一點。他們說，“看，我們應(yīng)該學(xué)習(xí)自然，但我們應(yīng)該這樣做，以提高我們的物質(zhì)福利?！睂裉斓娜藗儊碚f，這聽起來非常正常。但在16世紀到18世紀那段時期并不是這樣的，這就是我所說的工業(yè)啟蒙運動。

I believe the fundamental reason is China’sposition as a single empire, and also its bureaucracy, which is a unique andpeculiar animal. On the one hand, it is very progressive, because it is ameritocracy. In Europe, the people who were in power were the sons and nephewsof other people in power. But in China there’s an examination, and the peoplewho did the best rose in the Mandarin civil service. So you’d think, “Wow,that’s very progressive.” Except if you look at what they were studying forthese exams, they were simply regurgitating the classics. It was the perfecttool to keep reproducing from the same mold generation after generation.

我認為最根本的原因是中國一直都是一個統(tǒng)一的單一帝國，以及它的官僚制度，這是一種非常獨特的文化。這在一方面，讓它非常進步，因為它代表了一種精英獲得權(quán)利的制度。在歐洲，權(quán)利在貴族的家族之間流傳，而在中國，科舉制度，優(yōu)勝者會脫穎而出成為官員。所以你會想，“哇，這是非常進步的?！钡憧纯此麄?yōu)榭婆e而學(xué)習(xí)的東西，他們只是在重復(fù)他們的歷史典籍而已，這是一個完美的制度，一代又一代復(fù)制相同的模式。

In Europe, something different happens.People study classical knowledge, Ptolemy and Hippocrates and Archimedes, andthey begin to say, “Most of this stuff is wrong.” You couldn’t do that inChina. If you said “This stuff is wrong,” you failed your exam. But in Europe,the ability to challenge received wisdom is irrepressible.

在歐洲，發(fā)生了一些不同的事情。人們學(xué)習(xí)古典知識，托勒密，希波克拉底和阿基米德，他們開始說，“這些東西大部分都是錯的。”在中國你不能這樣做。如果你說“這東西錯了”，你考試就過不了關(guān)。但在歐洲，挑戰(zhàn)獲得智慧的能力是無法抑制的。

In the 17th century, Europeans buildmicroscopes, telescopes and barometers that allow them to study nature in a waythe classics never could. And they become rather cocky. There’s a Frenchphilosopher in the late 16th century, Pierre de La Ramée, who writes a bookwith the title “Everything Aristotle Has Said Is Wrong.” That’s chutzpah. Acentury earlier, he would have been strung up.

在17世紀，歐洲人建造了顯微鏡、望遠鏡和氣壓計，使他們能夠以經(jīng)典的方式研究自然。他們變得相當自大。16世紀末，有一位法國哲學(xué)家皮埃爾?德拉姆埃寫了一本書，書名為“亞里士多德所說的一切都是錯的。”這就是丘茨帕。要是早一個世紀之前，他會被吊死的。

The reason I say this is because scienceadvances in part because people have the tools to work on problems. In thescientific advances of the 17th century, the microscope, the telescope and thebarometer play a very important role. Now, if you ask what science has to workwith today, it boggles the mind. We have microscopes that see the sub-molecularlevel. We have telescopes that see galaxies nobody dreamed existed. We havelabs full of computers. A computer can find nanoscopic needles in a hay stackthe size of Montana. The question is not, “What do computers do for ourresearch?” The question people ask today is, “How the hell did anyone doanything before we had computers?”

我之所以這么說是因為科學(xué)進步的部分原因是因為人們?yōu)榱说玫侥軌蚪鉀Q問題的工具。在17世紀的科學(xué)發(fā)展中，顯微鏡、望遠鏡和氣壓計發(fā)揮著非常重要的作用?，F(xiàn)在，如果你問科學(xué)今天必須與什么合作，它會讓人困惑。我們有可以看到亞分子水平的顯微鏡，我們有望遠鏡，可以看到無法想象的星系，我們的實驗室里滿是計算機，計算機可以在蒙大拿大小的干草堆中找到一根納米級的針。問題不是，“計算機對我們的研究有什么作用？”今天人們問的問題是，“在我們擁有計算機之前，到底人們是怎么做到的？”

We are going to make so much more progress,simply because we have more powerful tools. As science advances, it will pushour capability of controlling nature further. Now, the problems also getharder. We are dealing with issues like climate change and desertification. Butour capability of solving them is going even faster, which is why I’m optimistic.

我們將取得更多的進展，僅僅是因為我們有更強大的工具。隨著科學(xué)的進步，它將進一步推動我們控制自然的能力。當然現(xiàn)在，問題也越來越嚴重。我們正在處理氣候變化和荒漠化等問題。但我們解決這些問題的能力會更快，這就是為什么我很樂觀。