七七 | 2023年新高考I卷英語(yǔ)閱讀D篇精析

On March 7,1907, the English statistician Francis Galton published a paper which illustrated what has come to beknown as the “wisdom of crowds” effect. The experiment of estimation he conducted showed that in some cases, theaverage of a large number of independent estimates could be quite accurate.

This effect capitalizes on the fact that when people make errors, those errors aren't always the same. Some people will tend to over estimate, and some to underestimate. When enough of these errors are averaged together, they cancel each other out, resulting in a more accurate estimate. If people are similar and tend to make the same errors, then their errors won't cancel cach other out. In more technical terms, the wisdom of crowds requires that people 's estimates be independent. If for whatever reasons, people 's errors become correlated or dependent, the accuracy of the estimate will go down.

• technical：專業(yè)的（語(yǔ)言）
• term：術(shù)語(yǔ)

12. What is paragraph 2 of the text mainly about？

• A. The methods of estimation.
• B. The underlying logic of the effect.?
• C. Thc causes of people's errors.
• D. The design of Galton's experiment.

But a new study led by Joaquin Navajas offered an interesting twist (轉(zhuǎn)折) on this classic phenomenon. The key finding of the study was that whcn crowds were further divided into smallcr groups that were allowed to havc a discussion,the averages from these groups were more accurate than those from an equal number of independent individuals. Forinstance, the average obtained from the estimates of four discussion groups of five was significantly more accurate than theaverage obtained from 20 independent individuals.

13. Navajas' study found that the average accuracy could increase even if _____.

• A. the crowds were relatively small【注意修飾信息】
• B. there were occasional underestimates
• C. individuals did not communicate
• D. estimates were not fully independent?

In a follow-up study with 100 university students the researchers tried to get a better sense of what the group members actually did in their discussion. Did they tend to go with those most confident about their estimates? Did theyfollow those least willing to change their minds? This happened some of the time, but it wasn 't the dominant response. Most frequently， the groups reported that they“shared arguments and reasoned together.”Somehow，these arguments andreasoning resulted in a global reduction in crror. Although the studies led by Navajas have limitations and many questions remain, the potential implications for group discussion and decision-making are enormous.

• enormous：巨大的

14. What did the follow-up study focus on?

• A. The size of the groups.
• B. The dominant members.
• C.The discussion process.
• D. The individual estimates.

15. What is the author's attitude toward Navajas' studies？

• A. Unclear.
• B. Dismissive.
• adj. 輕蔑的；鄙視的
• C. Doubtful.
• D. Approving.?