The new rules? --- A changed world

International commerce needs firmer underpinnings

Questions that need answering

If?global leaders are to prove the trade pessimists wrong, they need to offer clearer answers to three big questions.?First, where are the limits to what trade tools can achieve? Sometimes there is a tendency?"to overload the boat a bit", comments Mr Dombrovskis, the EU's trade commissioner, warning of the need for a balance between the idea of setting new tests for?trade deals and the feasibility of passing them.?Some humility when it comes to unilateralism?may be in?order.?If countries trying to export their standards or?to?exert their power are only a slice of suppliers'?markets, they may do little to produce change in rich countries while disrupting business in poor?ones.

?若全球領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人要證實(shí)貿(mào)易悲觀主義者的觀點(diǎn)錯(cuò)誤，則他們需要對(duì)三個(gè)大問題進(jìn)行清晰的回答。首先，貿(mào)易工具的作用上限在哪里？歐盟貿(mào)易專員?Dombrovskis先生表示有時(shí)候人們有“讓船超載一些”的趨勢(shì)。他警告道需要在貿(mào)易協(xié)定制定新的測(cè)試和測(cè)試通過的可行性之間平衡。謙虛對(duì)于單邊主義來說恰如其分。如果國(guó)家想要對(duì)一小部分供應(yīng)商市場(chǎng)輸出自己的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)或者施加影響，他可能對(duì)富裕國(guó)家沒有什么影響，但會(huì)擾亂窮國(guó)的貿(mào)易。

humility ?n. /hju?m?l?ti/謙遜；謙虛?? Her first defeat was an early lesson in humility. 她的第一次失敗使她很早便懂得了謙遜。

unilateralism ?n. /?jun??l?tr?l?z?m/ 單邊主義（信仰和支持單方面行動(dòng)，尤指單方面銷毀核武器的政策）

Second, what happens when the increasingly complex?stew?of non-trade objectives has internal contradictions??Those eager for?greater resilience or most worried about human-rights abuses may argue for trade barriers against solar-panel imports, to shift sourcing from China.?But that could conflict with short-run efforts to fight climate change with cheap renewable energy. Bernard Hoekman,?an academic at the European University Institute, who is leading a project on the effects of EU trade policy on non-trade policy goals, warns of misdirected resources, away from aid that goes directly towards improved economic governance or telecoms and logistics links.

其次，當(dāng)日益復(fù)雜的非貿(mào)易目標(biāo)混在一起產(chǎn)生內(nèi)部矛盾時(shí)，會(huì)發(fā)生什么??那些渴望更強(qiáng)韌性或最擔(dān)心侵犯人權(quán)的人可能會(huì)主張對(duì)太陽能電池板進(jìn)口設(shè)置貿(mào)易壁壘，以轉(zhuǎn)移來自中國(guó)的進(jìn)口源。但這可能與利用廉價(jià)可再生能源應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的短期努力相沖突。歐洲大學(xué)研究所(European University Institute)學(xué)者伯納德?霍克曼(Bernard Hoekman)警告稱，資源可能被誤導(dǎo)，從而偏離直接用于改善經(jīng)濟(jì)治理或電信和物流連接?；艨寺谥鲗?dǎo)一個(gè)研究歐盟貿(mào)易政策對(duì)非貿(mào)易政策目標(biāo)的影響的項(xiàng)目。

??stew /stju?/ ?名詞：燉的菜，煨的菜（有肉和蔬菜）?beef stew and dumplings 牛肉燉丸子；get (yourself)/be in a ?stew (about/over sth)（為某事）坐立不安，心煩意亂

動(dòng)詞：1.?燉；煨?stewed apples 燉蘋果；2.?[ Vusually + adv./prep. ]思考；擔(dān)憂?I've been stewing over the problem for a while. 這個(gè)問題我已經(jīng)考慮了一會(huì)兒。3.?let sb stew in their own ?juice 讓某人自作自受

Third, how should the consequences of new trade barriers be managed and contained? That job was for some years done by the WTO, which allowed limited retaliation?if?governments were in breach of their?obligations.?In its absence,?governments should know that protection has consequences, if only in the form of possible retaliation.?Since 2o16,?there is evidence of a rise in the share of global trade that is subject to trade restrictions, even excluding those related to the US-China trade war.

第三，如何管理及控制新貿(mào)易壁壘帶來的后果？這個(gè)工作多年以來由世貿(mào)組織負(fù)責(zé)。對(duì)于違反義務(wù)的政府，它允許有限的報(bào)復(fù)。在世貿(mào)組織缺席期間，政府應(yīng)該知道貿(mào)易保護(hù)帶來的后果，即使只是可能的報(bào)復(fù)。自2016年以來，有證據(jù)表明全球貿(mào)易中受貿(mào)易限制的占比提高，這甚至未包括中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)相關(guān)貿(mào)易。

retaliation n. /r??t?li?e??n/ ?~ (against sb/sth) (for sth) ?報(bào)復(fù)?? retaliation against UN workers 對(duì)聯(lián)合國(guó)工作人員的報(bào)復(fù)

If and when answers to these three questions emerge, the trading system that they suggest may be quite like the one that is now slowly being?dismantled. It ought to include mutually agreed rules overseen by?independent arbiters,?to deliver legitimacy and stability.?It must allow clearly defined exceptions, to prevent abuse and allow adaptation. It needs to respect the?use of trade tools to help deliver geopolitical,?security, environmental and human-rights goals. But?it should also recognize the risks of asking trade to do too much.?And it would,?logically,?point to revitalizing and reinforcing the WTO, rather than undermining it further, as several members are continuing to do.

如果這三個(gè)問題有了答案，那么他們提出的貿(mào)易體系可能與目前正在慢慢瓦解的體系非常相似。它應(yīng)該包括共同同意的、由獨(dú)立仲裁機(jī)構(gòu)監(jiān)督的規(guī)則，以提供合法性和穩(wěn)定性。它必須有明確定義的免責(zé)條款，以防止規(guī)則濫用和準(zhǔn)許適應(yīng)性變化。它需要尊重貿(mào)易工具的使用，以幫助實(shí)現(xiàn)地緣政治、安全、環(huán)境和人權(quán)目標(biāo)。但它也應(yīng)該意識(shí)到要求貿(mào)易做得太多的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。而且，從邏輯上講，它將指向世貿(mào)組織的振興和加強(qiáng)，而不是像幾個(gè)成員國(guó)正在繼續(xù)做的那樣進(jìn)一步削弱它。

dismantle v. /d?s?m?ntl/ ?

1.拆開，拆卸（機(jī)器或結(jié)構(gòu)）?I had to dismantle the engine in order to repair it. 我得把發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)拆開來修理。

2.（逐漸）廢除，取消??The government was in the process of dismantling the state-owned industries. 政府正在著手逐步廢除國(guó)有企業(yè)。 ?

arbiter ?n. /?ɑ?b?t?(r)/~ (of sth) ?仲裁人；公斷人；裁決人；決定者；權(quán)威人士?? The law is the final arbiter of what is considered obscene. 何謂猥褻最終由法律裁決。? an arbiter of taste/style/fashion 鑒賞╱款式╱時(shí)裝權(quán)威

英文原文《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人10月刊》

譯文：青石空明，僅供參考交流，如有錯(cuò)誤，請(qǐng)指出。