%北太天元軟件用灰度模型GM(1,1)做春運人數(shù)預測

clc;clear;clf; close all

%年?總?cè)藬?shù)(億), 鐵路運輸總?cè)藬?shù)(億), 公路運輸總?cè)藬?shù)(億)

tp = [

???2015 28.07?3.0?23.0

???2016 29.1??3.26 24.95

???2017 29.78?3.57 24.75

???2018 29.7??3.82 24.7

???2019 29.8??4.07 24.6

];

data=tp(:,2:4);

% 累加數(shù)據(jù)

data1=cumsum(data,1);

%求解系數(shù)

%進行預測

X=tp(:,1);;%已知年份數(shù)據(jù)

X_p = (2020:2024);?%預測年份

X_p = X_p';

T=[X;X_p];

X_sta=X(1);%最開始參考數(shù)據(jù)

data_T1 = zeros(size(T,1), size(data,2));

for j=1:size(data,2)

???B=zeros(size(data,1)-1,2);

???for i=1:size(data,1)-1

???????B(i,1)=-1/2*(data1(i,j)+data1(i+1,j));

???????B(i,2)=1;

???end

???Y=data(2:end,j);

???a_u=inv(B'*B)*B'*Y;

???a=a_u(1); u=a_u(2);

???data_p=(data1(1,j)-u/a).*exp(-a.*(T-X_sta))+u/a;%累加數(shù)據(jù)

???data_T1(1,j)=data_p(1);

???for n=2:length(data_p)

???????data_T1(n,j)=data_p(n)-data_p(n-1);

???end

end

title_str={'春運總?cè)藬?shù)','春運鐵路人數(shù)','春運公路人數(shù)'};

figure(1)

for j=1:3

?subplot(2,2,j)

?plot(T,data_T1(:,j),'-or','LineWidth',3);

?legend('預測人數(shù)','Location','NorthWest');

?title(title_str{j})

end

?subplot(2,2,4)

?plot(T,data_T1(:,1)-data_T1(:,2)-data_T1(:,3),'-or','LineWidth',3);

?legend('預測人數(shù)','Location','NorthWest');

?title("鐵路和公路之外的春運人數(shù)")

figure(2)

?plot(T,data_T1(:,2),'-or','LineWidth',3);

?legend('預測人數(shù)','Location','NorthWest');

?title(title_str{2})